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Cameron’s devious manipulation of mortality figures to make his 24/7 NHS election ‘bribe’.

Comments (4)
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Hi Brian,
There are some very handy critiques of government misuse of health statistics to be found on the Bad Medicine blog. This notion of a 24/7 NHS being a silver bullet for high weekend mortality rates is certainly not a new idea, and was being discussed back in 2012. Here is a nice post explaining why the idea that more weekend cover will reduce mortality rates is flawed, it's a really good read:
http://www.badmed.net/bad-medicine-blog/2012/02/nature-cooks-books.html
An example the author gives of possible selection bias giving rise to higher weekend mortality:
Now, if we think about our own behaviour when we are ill, we can see all too easily how just such a selection might happen in the present study. Many people, especially the elderly, who are likely to figure large in this study, are reluctant to call the doctor out of hours, all the more so at the weekend; those that can will hold out until Monday morning, as any GP knows only too well. Those with more severe illness, however, will not stand the wait, and so will call the doctor straight away and so be admitted to hospital there and then. And so it is that more patients with more severe illness may be selectively admitted at weekends; and this in turn may account for more deaths in those admitted at weekends.
This is only one possibility, of course, and until the weekend effect is better understood it is unhelpful to make political capital out of it by charging in like a bull in a china shop, making organisational changes to the NHS based on the oversimplified sound-bite assumptions of politicians. Because then you disturb the system and put the academic efforts already made into understanding the weekend effect back to square one. It is very hard to study a system that keeps being reorganised! -
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